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与摩根·弗里曼一起穿越虫洞.S05E02中文字幕 下载 SRT ASS_高清电影™

《与摩根·弗里曼一起穿越虫洞.S05E02中文字幕》

更新日期: 2015年01月15日 下载次数: 424  SRT ASS

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 “运气”也许是宇宙中最神秘Luck may be the most,最变幻莫测的力量。in the universe.,但运气到底是什么?But what exactly is luck?,为什么有人可以彩票中奖两次,Why do some of us,而有的人却无端的厄运上身?while others have bad luck,这些奇怪的巧合与难以置信的曲折命运背后,到底隐藏了什么?and incredible twists of fate?,是随机事件决定了我们的命运?Does random chance,还是物理定律预先注定了一切?Or is every roll of the dice,科学家正在试着证明Scientists are trying,运气究竟是否真的存在。to prove whether or not,空间,时间,生命本身。Space, time, life itself.,宇宙的奥秘尽在穿越虫洞。The secrets of the cosmos,Translated by Allegro1756Subtitles by MemoryOnSmells,你是如何成为现在的生活状态的? How did you get,也许是因为你努力工作,Maybe you struggled,也许是你继承了一笔财产Or maybe you inherited a fortune,于是根本没工作过。and never worked a day,有些事超出了我们的控制。Some things,宇宙已经为我们每个人订好了计划吗?,还是所谓的命运是随机事件的产物?,是我们自己成就了运气,Do we make our own luck?,还是运气成就了我们?Or does luck make us?,小时候,When I was growing up,,孩子们会随身携带一个幸运兔脚。kids would carry,由于某种原因,我们相信For some reason, we believed,这些兔脚会给我们带来好运。these severed paws granted,它们有作用吗?Did they work?,也许吧。Well, maybe.,我已经把幸运兔脚弄丢很久了,I lost that rabbit's foot,也不再相信幸运符了,and my belief in lucky charms.,但对于小时候的我来说这可是件坏事。,在赌场中,你会发现Go to a casino, and you'll see,带有某些迷信色彩的数字any number,会让玩家用来祈求好运。performed by players,每个人都有祈求幸运的方法。Everyone has a strategy.,我首先会做个der voghormia的美式祈祷,First, I do a der voghormia,,然后用我儿子的生日作为幸运数字。and then I play,这些筹码必须全部正面向上。The chips all have to,这些方法的产生Rituals of good luck develop,是因为我们相信because we believe,我们做的事会影响自己的机会。that something we do,Sally Linkenauger,,是兰卡斯特大学的心理学讲师,a lecturer in psychology,她认为自己对好运的信念suspects believing you're lucky,的确会影响到自己的发挥。actually changes the way,她正在进行一系列的实验,She's conducting,来证明她的假设。to test her hypothesis.,我们做的就是So, what we did,把经常打高尔夫的人叫到一起,who played golf,告诉其中一半的人说他们使用的推杆,是一个著名高尔夫运动员用过的。that had belonged,其实这是Ben Curtis的推杆,So, this is actually,他是名职业高尔夫运动员,并赢得了2003年英国高尔夫公开赛的冠军。,接下来你要击10次球,So, I'm gonna have you,我们会看你的表现如何。and we'll see how you do.,而另一半的人则得到不同的消息。The other golfers,这是根非常好的推杆,All right, so,,我想让你们用它击10次球,I'd like you to use it,我们来看看你们的表现。and we'll see how you do.,你的预期结果应该是某一组As you'd expect,会比另一组的人打得好。some do better than others.,经过多次试验后,趋势产生了。,开始击球后,认为自己手里So, once they started putting,,拿的是Ben Curtis的推杆的人,they were using,比那些认为自己拿的只是一个好推杆的人made about a putt and a half,要少用一杆或半杆。than the group that thought they,高尔夫球棍并不是幸运物,The golf club isn't lucky.,而关键在于击球者自己What's real,是否认为手里的球棍能带来好运。in whether or not,Sally认为这种迷信Sally suspects,可以帮助人们应付混乱或压力。helps people cope with chaotic,对于压力来说,恰当的压力There's kind of a sweet spot in,可以使你表现的更有效率。that you need in order to,如果你的压力很小,If you have a small amount,你就不会认真对待,表现自然也就不会很好,,而太多的压力会使你崩溃。Too much pressure,,所以你希望自己的压力恰到好处,So you want to have the perfect, kind,当你做一项任务时and when you're performing,人们看着你,and people are watching you,,对于良好表现,你就会很有压力。people put a lot of pressure,而当运动员认为自己拿着幸运球杆时,But that pressure,压力会轻微减少。when a player is holding,我们认为当他们击球时,We think,他们感觉到的压力就会变少,they're offloading some,认为这个球杆会帮他们承担部分后果,This putter is gonna do,并不是完全依赖自己的技术。It's not all on them.,这种压力释放会让他们表现的更好一点。And that release in pressure kind of,Sally认为相信自己有好运气,Sally suspects a belief in luck,比起增加自信更有效...does more,这改变了人们的感知。It changes perception.,在Sally的实验室中,她让高尔夫球员In her lab,,画出自己认为的球洞大小。to draw the size of the hole.,这是真实高尔夫球洞的大小,So, this is the actual size,所有的击球者都认为All the golfers think,球洞看起来比实际尺寸要小。that the hole looks smaller,但使用Ben Curtis的推杆的人However, individuals who were,会觉得高尔夫球洞大一些。thought the golf hole。
    平均来说,拿着普通球杆的人On average, the golfers,会比拿着所谓“幸运”球杆的人see the hole,觉得球洞小了11%,and harder to hit,而且觉得更难击球入洞。than the golfers with,好运只在我们的脑子里吗?Is luck all in the mind?,我认为自信占了成功的Confidence is a big,一大部分,in anything that you do,,当然这根球杆and it is possible,让人们在击球中更自信。made people more confident,我不会把这个称作运气。I wouldn't necessarily,我会称之为I would call it,通过某种可控的方式,handling our emotions,在做出一些行为时控制自己的情绪与焦虑,,以及自己感到的压力。in a way,但有个人认为相信自己是幸运的,也只能到这种程度。will only get you so far.,西北大学的法律学教授,A professor of law,又是统计学大师,and a master statistician,,Jay Koehler把一切看做是围绕平均值的浮动,Jay koehler sees everything,“mean”在这里是平均的意思。The "mean" is another word,一个明星球员会有好运的时候也有背运的时候,但其实都是均等的。,比如说,一名篮球运动员的3分球命中率是33%,,如果他再厉害点,可能能到45%的命中率,,但有些时候,他的命中率可能会超过50%,,或者也只有35%。or might be more like 35%.,这并不代表有什么奇怪的事发生。Nothing unusual is going on.,这个球员的命中率只是围绕在均值附近而已。,但当一个球员But what's happening,来手感的时候发生了什么呢...when a player appears,手感能够造就完美的比赛。A spectacularly good run of play?,这时有什么超自然现象发生了吗?Is something supernatural,手感是一种The hot hand is a phenomenon,经过一系列成功后的which temporarily elevates,运动水平暂时提高的现象。following a string of successes.,有个球员可能会You might have a player,一连中七个三分球。who makes seven 3-point shots,那么观察者,也可能是他自己And so an observer,,会说手感来了。might say he's "hot.",但问题是,真的有什么非同寻常的事发生了吗?,那么他现在的三分命中率变成了70%,80%,甚至90%吗?,答案是不可能的。And the answer is no.,Jay研究了Jay ran the numbers,NBA最好的三分投手的数据,on the NBA's best,想找到关于手感的证据。looking for proof,我们发现What we found was that,我们看到的连续投中the number of streaks,三、四、五、六、七次的概率...three, four, five,,基本就是偶然而已。was pretty much what you'd,我们也没发现手感来了或没有手感的现象。,冠军运动员,Championship athletes,,比如这两位西北大学的明星球员,like these two,只是比普通人的平均水平高一些,play at a much higher level,他们能够持续性的and they consistently perform,在自己能力的顶峰附近发挥。near the peak,运气在其中称不上某种因素。Luck isn't much of a factor.,平均来说,一个命中率50%的投手,,也只是中了所有投篮次数的一半。will make,对于Jay来说,这表明手感只是幻觉。To Jay, this is proof,其他的统计学家也分析了类似的运动,Other statisticians have run,得到了同样的结果。and found the same result.,如果一个运动员罚球命中率是50%,If a player shoots about 50%,对于他来说,罚球是否罚中then for him,,就像弹硬币。is like flipping a coin.,为了说明我们想要的结果,To illustrate some,我们将进行个投硬币实验。we're gonna perform a little,Reggie投100次硬币,Reggie is flipping the coin,Austin记录结果。and Austin's recording,投硬币的结果应该是随机的,The flipping,但Reggie一连七次投出了“头像”向上。but then Reggie flips,那这样的几率是多大呢?What are the odds of that?,七次“头像”向上听起来不可思议,Seven "heads" in a row,但要记住,连续七次头朝上but remember,,在100次投硬币中出现的概率是很大的。occurred in a larger context...,你投掷的次数越多,越可能出现“手感”的现象。,如果我们只投掷10次,If we only flip,连续七次头朝上的几率the chance of getting,只有大约2%。would be somewhere around 2%.,但当我们投硬币100次时,But we flipped the coin,连续七次头朝上的概率and the chance of getting,在100次投掷中会达到31%或32%。out of 100 flips is somewhere,这听起来有些颠覆我们的认识,It sounds,但其实幸运连击并不是真的幸运。but lucky streaks are not lucky.,幸运只是统计上的可能性。They are statistically likely.,我们一般会更注意不寻常的事件...We notice patterns,比如我们会注意到一个明星球员连续四次的进球,,但基本都会忽略But we fail to notice,他第五次未进,第六次进了,he misses the 5th shot,,第七次没进,却在第八次第九次进了。misses the 7th,,这些情况在每个These likely streaks can be seen,基于行为的领域中都可以看到,in every,从运动到买卖到股票交易。from sports to sales,如果去年结果不错,明年可能就不好了。,若要出现幸运连击What appears,只需要有足够大的样本容量。is only a failure,Jay认为这也是And this, Jay says, is why,你不必因为成功而沾沾自喜you shouldn't feel too pleased,或因失败而气馁的理由。or terrible about your failures.,所以当看起来会可能如何时,So, even when something,概率会干扰到未来事件,甚至拉向相反方向。,Jay认为不断努力尝试才是最重要的。What's important,,我们能够控制的因素就是我们做了几次尝试...,试着做一件事的次数...How many times......